Grand National 2021 could be a classy affair

Over the last few years the quality of the Grand National runners have been steadily improving with Gold Cup level horses such as Many Clouds and Anibale Fly running well in both races. 

The 2021 Grand National appears to be continuing that upwards trend and the upcoming race has the potential to be the classiest version of the great Aintree spectacle in the last twenty-five runnings.

Stretching back to 1995, on only five occasions have any horses rated at 167 or above contested the Grand National. They were:

Grand National Official Rating	Horse Name	Year	Finished	Starting Price
173	Master Oats	1997	5th	25/1
173	Master Oats	1995	7th	5/1F
170	Suny Bay	1998	2nd	11/1
169	Suny Bay	1999	13th	12/1
167	Miinnehoma	1995	PU	11/1
166	Young Hustler	1996	5th	8/1

The highest rated horse over the last twenty-five year to attempt to win the Grand National was 1995 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Master Oats. 

Trained by Kim Bailey, Master Oats fell in the 1994 Grand National when rated only 145 and then proceeded to win his next five races (including the 1995 Gold Cup) before tackling Aintree again off a huge rating of 173. The effects of a very busy season took their toll that day and Master Oats could only manage seventh place after starting the race as the well supported 5/1 favourite. Master Oats tried the Grand National again in 1997 (again off a mark of 173), this time as a seemingly unfancied 25/1 shot, but he still managed to put in an improved performance in what was to be his last ever race when finishing fifth to Lord Gyllene. 

Suny Bay ran in the Grand National four times, finishing second to Lord Gyllene in 1997 when rated 152 and then a year later running off a whopping 18lb higher rating (170) when he finished second again, this time to Earth Summit. Between his first two Grand Nationals, Suny Bay had won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, finished fourth in the King George and finished fifth in the Gold Cup, which led to this dramatic increase in his rating. 

The first two attempts at the Grand National were when he was trained by Charlie Brooks but the horse was transferred to Simon Sherwood for his third try at the big Aintree fences. On this occasion (1999) Suny Bay was rated 169 but could only finish a distant thirteenth to Bobbyjo. Suny Bay tried for a fourth time to win the Grand National in 2000 but he was past his best at that point but still managed to complete the course in thirteenth place when a 66/1 chance.

The 1994 Grand National winner Miinnehoma was saddled with a rating of 167 for the defence of his crown in 1995. Unfortunately Miinnehoma disliked the much faster ground that year (he had won on heavy ground in 1994) and was pulled up.

Only one other horse in the last twenty-five years has been rated 166 or over when running in the Grand National and that was Nigel Twiston-Davies' Young Hustler. A big favuorite in the National Hunt ranks Young Hustler ran in the National three times being brought down in 1994, unseating his ride in 1995 and finishing 5th (when rated 166) in 1996 behind Rough Quest. Young Hustler won numerous big races in a sixty-five race career inclusing the RSA Chase, the Charlie Hall and the Becher Chase.

Currently the 2021 Grand National has six remaining entries rated at 167 or above. If any of these horses were to run we will undoubtedly be witnessing one of the best recent Grand Nationals from a ratings perspective.

Obviously the official handicapper has the power to drop (or rise) the ratings for the Grand National when the weights are announced on the 16th February and we may well see the likes of Bristol De Mai and Tiger Roll dropped a couple of pounds to try and encourage them to run:

Official Rating for the 2021 Grand National	Horse Name	Trainer
167	Bristol De Mai	Nigel Twiston-Davies
167	Easysland	David Cottin
167	Santini	Nicky Henderson
166	Tiger Roll	Gordon Elliott
166	Presenting Percy	Gordon Elliott
166	Delta Work	Gordon Elliott

It goes without saying that all of these horses may not make it to Aintree but connections of Bristol De Mai, Presenting Percy and Easysland have all said that the Grand National figures prominently in their plans for their respective charges. The first two named horses have recently been scratched from the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Nigel Twiston-Davies and Gordon Elliott respectively have both said that the Grand National is now the season’s main focus for their stable stars. 

Nicky Henderson’s Santini is also in this highly rated group but his primary target is also likely to be the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup. However, given Henderson’s poor record overall in the Grand National he could be tempted to turn Santini out again for Aintree, especially as the horse’s running style appears to be crying out for an extreme test of stamina. Henderson would desperately love to win the Grand National after having a runner-up in the race (Zongalero) as long ago as 1979!

Delta Work recently finished third at Leopardstown in the Irish Gold Cup, a race he had won the year before. Unfortunately it has since been announced that Delta Work will definitely not head to the Gold Cup due to a setback and could potentially miss tyhe rest of the season. At this stage though he remains entered in the Grand National.

Tiger Roll’s connections continue to play their version of chicken with the British handicapper threatening to not run their dual Grand National winning hero if he is allocated too much weight for 2021 and floating the idea of running in the Irish National instead. That scenario is surely very unlikely especially as Tiger Roll has run before in the Irish National (2017) only to be pulled up  as early as the twelfth fence. It’s hard to see how connections can refuse the chance for the horse to make history at Aintree but Tiger Roll’s dip in form has to be a worry. The eleven-year-old gelding ran in a Cross Country race at Cheltenham back in November and was nothing like his usual self, eventually pulling up. No physical reason was found for the poor display and Tiger Roll is due to run in a hurdle race at Navan in February and then the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival, which will be his attempt to win at the most competitive meeting of the year for the fifth time. If Tiger Roll were to run poorly in those two prep races then retirement could come into the equation but let’s hope we get to see the great horse try his luck once again at Aintree.

Even if Tiger Roll doesn’t run at Aintree we look assured of a fantastic race to look forward to with so many top class horses in the frame to run.

(Since this article was written sadly Tiger Roll, Presenting Percy and Delya Work have been withdrawn.)